Egypt’s Cities Need Modern, Efficient Transport
Smart investments and policy reforms in public transport can greatly serve Egypt’s cities, economy and people. Those best policies are based on the cities’ size and traffic needs, and favor walking, biking and trees.
Public transport, especially buses, has been increasingly unavailable, unreliable, uncomfortable and even unsafe, while urban traffic and street planning have favored cutting down trees, prioritizing the rising number of private cars, and making active movement (walking and biking) very difficult. Informal and unregulated transport modes have also proliferated; especially imported, tightly packed and highly uncomfortable eastern Asian microbuses and small, unlicensed Indian tuk-tuks. Both modes are often chaotically driven by underage, unlicensed drivers. Long-trip travel in microbuses is pricey and taxis much pricier, while tuk-tuks are very polluting but common due to low fares and access to narrow streets in poor or old areas. Due to poor public transport, private car ownership has jumped despite low affordability, with traffic jams common in most cities, especially Greater Cairo, the capital and megalopolis of 25 million people, and Alexandria, the second city and main port on the Mediterranean Sea with over 6 million people.
We explore Egypt-wide ideas, and others specific to Cairo, Alexandria, and 21 small-medium cities with 200,000–3 million people (includes capitals of 17 of Egypt’s 27 provinces). Across Egypt, available, punctual, efficient, reliable and affordable transport needs to become the priority. A switch is needed, with infrastructure and foreign-led investment, to electric vehicles, as they are quiet, orderly, cost-efficient, clean and fully fuel-saving. Most important are quiet, safe, orderly, punctual and widely available electric buses as the primary mode across Egypt. Next are surface trams, then pod cars (explained below) and taxis, which need to become more affordable, with costs lower by fostering competition between large, efficient and internationally operating firms such as the USA’s Uber, Russia’s In-Driver and China’s Didi. Tuk-tuks must be phased out and replaced by small, licensed, non-polluting and affordable micro-taxis made in Egypt by Indian firm Tata. Rebalancing public transport would curb the excessive demand for microbuses, but they need strict regulation and their chaotic driving and price extortion ended. Lastly, transport fares must be at market prices, with direct, targeted cash support to deserving low-income families, as done successfully by Brazil and Mexico.
Cairo and Alexandria
Both cities are challenges due to their size, especially Cairo. In 1979, it had 33 surface tram lines built in earlier decades, efficiently covering most of the city. However, to meet rapid traffic growth after 1973, Egypt’s state made the wrong choice. Rather than organize traffic well and convert the tram lines into a modern, quiet, orderly and efficient modern electric tram system, the surface tram was removed (from 1979–2014), private car traffic prioritized, and the Cairo Metro (Underground, electric) built starting in 1981, at huge cost and disruption to the city’s traffic and life. Today there are three large Metro lines, with another three planned. They run much better than all the other, shop-worn transport modes, but with very high costs and losses. Previous lines were built by French and Japanese funding and firms, but Japanese funding continues and now Egyptian firms have the know-how. With the national government moving to the New Administrative Capital in the desert, there is a time-limited chance to partially restore surface electric tram lines to Cairo’s heart, connected to the Metro, along with similar tram lines at three growing, upscale satellite cities around Cairo: New Cairo, 6 October and Shorouk. With all three each hosting a 600,000–1.2 million population, Personal Rapid Transit Vehicle (pod) networks are also viable there and on dedicated lanes of Cairo’s very wide Ring Road.
Pods; successful in London Heathrow Airport, Morgantown in West Virginia, USA, Sweden, the Netherlands, South Korea and China, are small, light, fast, driverless, automated electric cars (capacity 1–5 persons) that travel on special roads and provide direct, personal transit to the destination with full safety, no stopping or accidents. Every car has a smart internal program to drive, manoeuvre and deal with emergencies, organize traffic, safety and security, and give way to ambulance and police. A central computer system monitors road conditions and relays traffic alerts and guidance to the pods, whose batteries are quickly recharged via solar power before emptying. Pods are available round the clock and only move on demand. This is perfect for variable traffic patterns at peak and off-peak times of the day. Pods offer advantages: speed, comfort, low fares, quiet, order, safety and security, fuel efficiency and saving infrastructure for other, inflexible, costlier and polluting transport modes. It is notable that for very small cities, the pods’ investment cost and low demand make them uneconomic, while in large cities very high traffic demand would be overwhelming. And while New Cairo, Shorouk and 6 October City are part of Greater Cairo, with traffic to and from the city at-large, key artery roads within the three cities can be dedicated to pods and other traffic easily re-routed. The same applies in Central Cairo’s business district, where small roads, short distances and busy traffic make the investment viable.
From its heyday in 1882–1956 as a thriving, cosmopolitan haven for a mostly-gone, expatriate European community, Alexandria has over Cairo the advantages of smaller size, greater order and collective identity. Its excellent surface tram system has also survived, runs well and covers the upscale north of the city. It is now being modernized, converted into a fast, modern electric tram system, and extended to outlying areas. This is good, but more is needed. Outlying southern, downscale areas are congested and not served by the tram, but need and deserve to be. This should have been done decades ago when numbers and traffic/population density were lower and allowed it, but it is now too late. Downscale southern areas will be need to be connected to the tram via underground metro, while the tram system’s capacity as a whole will need to be expanded to accommodate the higher incoming traffic volume. With the existing tram running west-east, distances from the south and costs would be manageable and not prohibitive. With more electric taxis and especially buses available, future traffic demand should be comfortably accommodated. Alexandria’s size and traffic density are too high for pod networks, but they would be an excellent option in Egypt’s many small cities.
Smaller Cities
Surface trams, while no longer feasible in Cairo, suit 16 smaller Egyptian cities, along with buses, taxis and micro-taxis there as well. This includes three medium-sized cities with populations of 1–3 million: Port Said and Suez (provincial capitals on the Suez Canal) and Mahalla, a northern industrial city, and 13 small provincial capitals with populations of 300,000–1 million: Luxor, Mansoura, Tanta, Asyut, Ismailia, Fayoum, Zagazig, Dumyat, Hurghada, Aswan, Minya, Damanhur and Beni Suef. In such cities, traffic density is not prohibitive as in Cairo, but high enough to recover the investment, as done very successfully by nearby Algeria in similar-sized cities. There is another interesting option for five Upper (central and southern) Egyptian provincial capitals (Beni Suef, Minya, Asyut, Luxor and Aswan), plus the two other Nile Valley Upper Egyptian provincial capitals, Qena and Sohag, with somewhat smaller, 200,000–300,000 populations. For each of those seven capitals, there is a newer, smaller city across the Nile River (New Minya, New Asyut, etc.).
In each case, the cities are connected across the Nile by an old, shop-worn steel bridge with congested traffic, with a need to meet the growing traffic across the Nile, plus the new city’s growth. Two main options exist: either a new, heavy bridge with a fast railway to ferry commuters, or a lighter bridge with a network of pod cars. Pod networks are cheaper, and more flexible and efficient. They operate at high volume and transport riders quickly during peak hours, while at off-peak hours some pods are idle with demand low. With Upper Egypt’s cities still small and traffic demand fairly limited, commuter trains would either have to be idle at off-peak hours, or run at low capacity with wasted costs during that low-traffic time. Active pod cars run efficiently with their low capacity and costs during those same, off-peak hours, allowing a 24-hour schedule. An additional idea is to make the pod network a main public transport mode within the 13 small provincial capitals, with extensive pod roads and large numbers of pods. Buses, trams, taxis and micro-taxis would still be important, but pods would also emerge as an attractive alternative to private cars there. Lastly, it is important to promote and facilitate active movement in streets across Egypt. This includes safe, orderly street pavements with trees for shade in the quieter and more spacious smaller cities and upscale areas of the larger cities, and special downtown streets in small-medium cities dedicated to trams and active movement. Also needed are protected lanes for bikes in the streets, and guarded bike parking lots. The best three trees for good shade are also climate-adapted, fruitful, good wood-yielding and multiply useful: the large Senegalese khaya in large streets and highways, and in smaller streets the smaller carob in Egypt’s north and center and tamarind in the south.
Investment and Reform
Investments and reforms are needed to achieve this ambitious vision, and the best plans anticipate the future well. To start, Egypt needs reliable partners for technically advanced and cost-efficient investments in modern transport modes and infrastructure. China has made great strides and achieved economies of scale and efficiency in transport mode technologies and mega-investments. Its state-backed large firms have great technical expertise and experience in large, ambitious infrastructure investments in developing Asian and African countries, and Sino-Egyptian relations are strong. The firms can be reliable partners in electric buses, cars (China’s flagship firm Chery is the standout), taxis and pod cars. Investment needs to be via the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) system, whereby the firm builds, operates with fees to recover its investment plus a moderate, pre-agreed profit, then transfers ownership for free to Egypt’s state, which saves plentiful costs and inherits infrastructure at international standards and a qualified domestic workforce. This has widely been adopted in Africa for infrastructure, with great success. BOT investments are needed by foreign firms from various countries in multiple transport modes for Egypt’s cities.
Lastly, wide-ranging reform is needed. With Egypt’s population, now 102 million, growing fast at 2 million/year and expected to reach 190 million by 2070, that would greatly exacerbate city congestion, as growth there is at even faster rates due to immigration from rural areas. An effective population policy is needed, that would pair convincing citizens to have smaller families with strong financial incentives for smaller families and disincentives for larger ones. As a result, population would instead grow slowly to a much more manageable 130 million by 2070. To more effectively control urban traffic, needed are higher taxes on private cars, with revenues spent on road maintenance and public transport, and restrictions to curb car purchasing and licensing, especially in Cairo. Together with better public transport and supporting measures, traffic demand can be rebalanced and better managed.
Good urban planning can further improve traffic. Egypt’s small number of urban villas still in good condition needs a demolition ban to curb congestion. In new cities, streets with apartment buildings would be 20m wide, with trees in the middle. Rather than haphazard, 20–30 floor towers, building floor maxima would be three for rural, ex-urban and upscale homes (villas and apartment buildings), five for other housing and seven for commercial and office buildings. In the heart of the five largest cities (Cairo, Giza, Shubra, Alexandria and Port Said), floor caps would be seven for housing and ten for office and commercial buildings. Lastly, room heights, now averaging 330cm for upscale villas and 280cm elsewhere, would be 380cm for upscale villas and 330cm elsewhere, helped by better, lower-cost building materials. Given the right policies, Egypt can achieve much-improved traffic and quality of life for its citizens.
